The Forces Behind North Korea Nuclear Programme
North Korea, officially the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), created in 1948, is a totalitarian state with belligerent tendency. Two years after creation, she initiated invasion against its south counterpart which resulted in Korean War of 1950–1953. Armistice agreement was reached but peace treaty was never signed. Thereafter North Korea witnessed economic growth but by 1980s it became stagnated, thereby shifting her focus to arms production¹; commencing the era of DPRK nuclear progamme. What are the forces behind this nation’s nuclear programme? The analysis of this is the essence of this article.
The forces behind North Korea nuclear programme could be broadly classified into two parts: The internal forces and external forces. The internal forces of North Korea nuclear programme could be linked to the state policy of nuclear development initiated by regime of Kim Il-Sung, and maintained by successive regimes of his son, Kim Jong-Il and grand son, Kim Jong-Un which aimed to transform DPRK to nuclear power that would enable her to defend and expand her interest. The US growing influence in the Korean peninsula and beyond had been a great concern to the North Korea; not only had US frustrated her efforts toward reunification during Korean War, she had also firmly instituted herself by forming alliances with South Korea and Japan to advance her interest. To put these to check, Kim Il-Sung commenced nuclear research thus ushering in the era of DPRK nuclear programme.
Kim Jong-Il went further than his father by engaging in uranium production. In 2002, he admitted to secret production which he claimed was for security reasons. In 2006, DPRK announced that she had successfully conducted an underground nuclear test². All efforts of US and International Atomic Energy Agency to halt production failed and he continued nuclear development till his death in 2011.
The DPRK nuclear production and test came to peak under Kim Jong-Un. He has disregarded all options to halt the nuclear test. He developed nuclear capability of all range, the latest of which is ICBM which experts say could reach mainland US. Kim Jong-Un has launched 88 missiles since 2011, 22 of which were tested this year alone and with no sign of slowing down. In comparison, his father Kim Jong-Il conducted 16 over his entire tenure, and his grandfather Kim Il-Sung launched 15³. He has engaged US severally in rhetorical statements and threatened to launch missile attack on the US Island of Guam in the pacific. The rhetoric goes on.
The external forces behind DPRK nuclear programme are associated with the countries who share common fear of the US growing influence in the region and beyond. The US growing influence in the Korean Peninsula, in the pacific and her activities to limit Chinese aspiration in South China Sea should definitely worry and prompt China to seek capable ally to check mate this intrusion and ensure balance of power. China apart from being a major trading partner is historically an ally of DPRK. In July 1961, DPRK and Peoples Republic of China signed the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty which is still in force. Specifically, Article 2 of the treaty declares the two nations undertake all necessary measures to oppose any country or coalition of countries that might attack either nation. Though China supported UN and other sanctions against DPRK but her application of such has been feeble. China sees strength in nuclear DPRK as way of checkmating US growing dominance in the region and beyond.
Some unconventional diplomatic practices involving North Korea and China between 2009 and 2010 have also suggested some form of secret and parallel diplomacy between these two countries. These include the clandestine visit of Kim Jong-Un to China in 2009, which Chinese foreign ministry ‘strongly denied’⁵; the visit of Kim Jong-Il to China in May 2010 where he stayed in hotel in Dalian, while on state visit⁶; his visit in August 2010 to same China with his son, fuelling speculation that he was introducing successor to foreign government⁷. These may never be coincidence but indication of mutual commitments of both countries against a perceived threat.
If US before now adopted strategic patience policy against DPRK nuclear programme what then is the Russia’s policy towards this belligerent neighbor? Strategic silence? I think not. Diplomatic relations between former Soviet Union, predecessor of Russia, and DPRK were established in 1948. Though the two were close allies during the Cold War, relations between them loosened after USSR breakup. The relationship however gained momentum under Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev. In late August 2011, Kim Jong-Il traveled to Russia to meet President Medvedev for unspecified talks⁸. Why? Another secret diplomacy? Apart from few condemnations and feeble support for UN sanctions, Russia apparently has not strongly opposed DPRK nuclear programme and would be delighted to welcome a strong ally against her age long rival, the US, even at a cost.
With all these developments, it is obvious that forces behind DPRK nuclear programme center around the successive regime of North Korea, the China and the Russia, all with various but common interest; limiting US intrusion, influence and expansion in Korean peninsula, the pacific and beyond. On various, DPRK believes that nuclear capability would enhance her power in world politics, usher in other developments and possibly a better negotiation for Korean reunification. The China believes that a nuclear DPRK would ensure a balance of power, curtail undue US interference in the Korean Peninsula, Pacific and South China Seas, thereby increasing her own world influence. To Russia, a nuclear DPRK would invoke balance of terror, downgrade US nuclear supremacy as well as destabilizing her power structure, and ultimately checkmate the West, in the event of East-West tussle. The question is could these events lead to World War 3? Only time can tell. But certainly this nuclear face-off would be an acid-test for provisions of the UN Charter (especial chapter VII), whose revision is long overdue.
References
- “DPRK Successfully Conducts Underground Nuclear Test”. KCNA, October 10, 2006.
- Harrison, Selig S. (2003), Korean endgame: A Strategy for Reunification and U.S. Disengagement. Page 322.
- Joshua Berliger, CNN, North Korea’s Missile Tests by the Numbers Updated 0341 GMT (1141 HKT) September 18, 2017 http://edition.cnn/2017/05/29/asia/north-korea-missile-tests/index.html.
- Kim Jong Il’s son ‘made secret visit to China’. The Time, 16 June 2009.
- McCurry, Justin; Watts, Jonathan (26 August 2010). “North Korea leader Kim Jong-Il ‘visiting China with his son’”. London: BBC News.
- “North Korea- A Country Study”. (PDF). Library of Congress Country Studies. 2009. Page 45-49.
- North Korea’s Kim ‘visits China’. BBC News. 3 May 2010.
- Schwirtz, M. “Kim Il Jong Visits Russia to meet with President Medvedev”, The New York Times. 21 August 2011.
Written by Wole Babajide
